重磅！美联储时隔一年再次加息25个基点 大A股还会自己玩么？1
15日讯：北京时间周四凌晨，美联储12月FOMC会议宣布加息25个基点，新的联邦基金目标利率将处于0.5%-0.75%的区间，与市场预期一致。这是美联储时隔一年后再次加息，也是十年半以来美联储第二次加息。FOMC决议声明显示，本次利率决议是一致通过，预计2017年加息三次，预计未来加息路径更迅速。上调长期联邦基金利率预期0.1个百分点，至3.0%。重申目前的经济状况表明美联储只适宜循序渐进加息。目前的货币政策立场依然维持宽松。今年初以来通胀持续上扬，经济活动温和扩张。美联储宣布加息后，美元指数跳涨，非美货币、金银短线急挫。截至北京时间15日5点，欧元/美元跌破1.05，触及2015年3月来最低。美元/日元升破117.00关口，报117.16，为2月8日以来首次。离岸人民币/美元刷新两日新低报6.9287，较美联储宣布加息之前大跌逾300点。COMEX黄金期货电子交易盘一度重挫18美元至1141.00美元，创1月31日当周以来盘中新低。WTI原油期货收跌1.94美元，跌幅3.66%报51.04美元/桶；布伦特原油期货收跌1.82美元，跌幅3.27%报53.90美元/桶。道指在美联储加息后首次落得“大选日”以来逾100点收盘跌幅，多头恐暂时放弃上方2万点目标。道指收跌118.68点，跌幅0.60%报19792.53点，此前连涨七个交易日的势头暂告一段落;纳指收跌0.50%报5436.67点;标普500指数收跌0.81%报2253.28点。美联储主席耶伦：FOMC承认经济取得相当进展美联储主席耶伦随后召开新闻发布会，对美联储加息的决定做出解释。她表示，通过加息，FOMC承认了美国经济取得的大进展。经济正向着美联储的通胀/就业双重目标迈进。她说：“我们预计经济将继续保持良好的表现。劳动力市场将进一步走强，通胀将在未来数年内达到2%的目标。”她指出，基于市场的通胀依然处于低位，处于调查的通胀水平则维持不变。通胀预期依然牢牢受控，将谨慎观察实际和预期的通胀走向。耶伦称，此次经济预期和9月份非常接近，预计目前的经济状况下只能循序渐进加息。美联储预计，明年将有3次加息，这较之前两次加息的预期有所提升。耶伦表示，FOMC的一些委员考虑了潜在的财政刺激的影响。她认为，加息预期的改变是“微调”。声明翻译全文如下：自FOMC今年11月份召开会议以来所收到的信息表明，就业市场继续增强，经济活动自年中以来一直都在稳健扩张。最近几个月以来就业增长一直都很稳健，失业率下降。家庭支出一直都在适度增长，但企业固定投资则一直保持疲软。通胀自今年早些时候以来已有所上升，但继续低于FOMC的2%长期目标，这部分反映了能源价格早前的下跌以及非能源进口产品价格的下跌。整体而言，最近几个月中以市场为基础的通胀补偿指标已有相当幅度的上升，但仍保持在较低水平;大多数以调查报告为基础的长期通胀预期指标则基本保持不变。FOMC正在依据其法定使命来寻求培育最大就业和物价稳定。FOMC目前预计，通过逐步调整货币政策立场的方式，经济活动将以适度的步伐扩张，就业市场指标将在某种程度上进一步增强。预计通胀率将在中期上升至2%，原因是能源和进口产品价格此前下跌的暂时性影响将会消散且就业市场将进一步增强。经济前景的近期风险看似大致平衡。联邦公开市场委员会将继续密切监控通货膨胀指标以及全球经济和金融形势的发展。考虑到已实现和预期中的就业市场状况及通胀，FOMC决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间上调至0.50%至0.75%。货币政策立场仍将保持宽松，从而为就业市场状况的进一步改善和通胀重返2%提供支持。为了判定联邦基金利率目标区间未来调整的时机选择和规模，FOMC将对有关其最大就业和2%通胀目标的已实现和预期经济状况进行评估。这种评估将把一系列广泛的信息考虑在内，包括有关就业市场状况的指标、通胀压力和通胀预期指标、以及有关金融和国际发展的读数等。鉴于目前通胀尚未达到2%的形势，FOMC将仔细监控朝向通胀目标的实际和预期将有的进展。FOMC预计，经济状况的发展仅可令其有理由逐步上调联邦基金利率;在一段时间之内，联邦基金利率很可能仍将保持在低于长期普遍值的水平。但是，联邦基金利率的实际道路将依赖于未来数据所表明的经济前景。FOMC将维持现有的政策，将来自于所持机构债和机构抵押贷款支持债券的本金付款再投资到机构抵押贷款支持债券中去，在国债发售交易中对即将到期的美国国债进行展期，并预计直到联邦基金利率水平的正常化进程顺利展开以前都将继续这样做。这项政策令FOMC的长期债券持有量保持在可观的水平，应可有助于保持融通的金融状况。在此次会议上投票支持联邦公开市场委员会货币政策行动的委员有：主席珍妮特·耶伦(JanetL.Yellen)、副主席威廉·杜德利(WilliamC.Dudley)、莱尔·布莱恩纳德(LaelBrainard)、詹姆斯·布拉德(JamesBullard)、斯坦利·费希尔(StanleyFischer)、埃丝特·乔治(EstherL.George)、洛丽塔·梅斯特(LorettaJ.Mester)、杰罗姆·鲍威尔(JeromeH.Powell)、埃里克·罗森格伦(EricRosengren)和丹尼尔·塔鲁洛(DanielK.Tarullo)。声明英文全文如下：Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.各类资产会怎么走?A股：或许不会有太大波澜影响A股市场运行的因素很多，美国加息只是其一，先来看历次美联储加息前后A股的走势：https://image.cailianpress.com/cailianpress/default/20161215/054924_5851be648f459.jpg上表是美联储第五轮加息周期及去年启动新一轮加息前后对应的A股市场表现，可以看出，美联储加息对A股影响并没有很强的关联性，A股依然按照自身规律运行。https://image.cailianpress.com/cailianpress/default/20161215/054940_5851be7458c08.jpg但由于美联储第五轮加息时间点距今间隔较长，参考意义并不太大，我们再把时间拉近一点，看看今年以来美联储历次议息会议前后，A股市场的表现：从上表可以看出，今年以来，美联储7次议息会议前夕，A股有6次是下跌的，下跌概率逾八成，利空冲击比较明显，议息会议结束后，美联储并没有启动加息，A股又重回原有轨道，大多数时间上涨，表现出明显的强势。谢谢楼主分享 谢谢分享，学习了 谢谢学长的分享 谢谢楼主的分享 谢谢楼主分享 感谢楼主的分享！辛苦了！ 谢谢楼主分享！
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